Sep/Oct 2004
The Decline and Fall of Europe
by Arnold E. ReingoldAll civilizations are worthy of study and respect and are, therefore, in historian Arnold Toynbee’s phrase “philosophically equal.” Nevertheless, it is Western society which has produced by far the greatest moral and physical freedom as well as economic rewards for its multitudes of people. That society, indebted to its Greek and Hebrew sources, has extended its influence and a measure of control throughout the entire world. However, based on current trends in populations, the European homeland of our society will cease to exist in its present Western form within the lifetimes of our children.
Why is this happening, and why does it matter?
Declining Western Birth Rates
The average non-Muslim woman in Western Europe today gives birth to about 1.4 children. This is one-third less than the 2.1 births required to maintain a constant level of population. In France, for instance, if the current trend continues, the number of non-Muslim school children will drop by one third in one generation, and by 55 percent in two generations. This long-term population decline is obscured by longer life expectancies, and the much higher birthrate of the Muslim population.
The U.S. Census Bureau projects that by the year 2050 the population of France and the Netherlands, notwithstanding the Muslim increase, will decline by 19 percent. The projected decreases are 26 percent for Belgium and Spain, 31 percent for Germany and 34 percent for Italy. (The population of the United States is expected to INCREASE by 56 percent to almost 440 million during that time.)
An estimated five to six million of the sixty million people in France were Muslim in the year 2000. This estimate is probably low due to unrecorded immigrants, but let us assume we are within a 10-percent range. We can obtain a reasonable estimate of their birthrate by using the experience of their primary home countries, which are Algeria and Morocco. That rate is 4.2 children per woman. Due to the superior level of health care in Europe, the survival rate of these children will be high. Even if no more Muslims were to arrive, the Islamic population of France will double in one generation, and quadruple in two. Bearing in mind that these immigrants tend to have children at a younger age than their European counterparts, those generations will reach maturity in a relatively short time. If the current birth rates persist, even without additional immigration, by 2050, half of the school-age children in France will be Muslim.
There were 250 million Muslims in the world in 1950. Today, there are 1.25 billion, and in 25 years the projection is 2.5 billion. Based on current economic realities, the probable inability of the Arab countries which do not produce oil to provide a decent life for their citizens will cause a continued influx to Europe. As the Muslim religious, cultural and political influence grows, life for native Europeans will become increasingly stressed and economically less productive. The natural consequence of the process will be an increasing out-migration, not only of people, but of cultural and religious institutions.
Cultural Migration
Visualize, for instance, the Vatican relocating to Mexico City, Buenos Aires or perhaps even Manila. After all, last year more new Catholic babies were christened in the Philippines than in Western Europe. The base of fundamentalist Anglicanism is not now in the U.S. and certainly not in England, but in Uganda and Nigeria.
Already the balance of political power is changing. Witness the French government’s frantic attempts to save Saddam Hussein and his Baath (read National Socialist) party. We have heard about commercial contracts and loans, oil and arms sales, allegations or bribes at the highest levels of government and a desire to weaken the influence of the U.S. But overshadowing these obvious influences, the pressure of a growing, young, energetic, vocal and sometimes physically threatening Muslim political movement is clearly evident.
The situation in Belgium and the Netherlands is not greatly different than the French, although the Muslims in Holland have come primarily from Indonesia rather than from North Africa. Unfortunately we have recently witnessed the growth of a radical Islamic movement in Indonesia, including the bombings in Bali. Mid-eastern mullahs and others are providing ongoing anti-western propaganda and “religious instruction” across Western Europe. One of the natural results has been an increase in virulent anti-Semitic outbursts, both in the classic European sense, and in the newer mode of denying the legitimacy and right to existence of the State of Israel [Editor’s Note: See “Beast Awakens— Evil Monster Revives in Europe?” Plain Truth, Jan/Feb 2004].
A New Islamic Europe?
Why would it be significant to Americans if the Europe with which we
are so familiar is replaced by a series of Islamic states? After all,
the mountains and beaches (if not the churches and the museums) will
remain. The social, economic and political consequences will be a catastrophic
change in the world balance of power. Western Europe has been marvelously
successful at the cultural assimilation of people from Eastern and Southern
Europe, and to a large degree from Africa and Asia. However, the
current wave of immigrants is different.
Many Muslims want to reproduce the social, if not the economic, conditions
of their homelands. We are all aware of the repression of women and minorities,
and the
extreme social backwardness that are now being imported into the West. Many
of the newcomers oppose what we represent, hate our culture and are prepared
to blow up people and buildings and airplanes to change the way we live.
Militarist Islam is growing more powerful in its home countries. Witness the recent elections in the nominally pro-western countries of Turkey and Kuwait, and in Algeria. Meanwhile, the Iraqis destroy their power plants and blame the U.S. for the lack of electricity.
The loss of Europe would represent an immense victory for the forces arrayed against freedom. It is very, very late; Europe is dying quickly, and the apparent solutions are Draconian, brutal and, sadly, anti-democratic. They include the following:
•Financially and otherwise encourage more European babies. Scotland is considering $10,000 bonuses and subsidized child care.
•Fill needed jobs by increasing immigration from Eastern Europe (Poland, Russia, Bulgaria, etc.), and from non-Muslim Asia and Latin America. Spain is now encouraging the arrival of new citizens from the many unemployed Argentines and Mexicans. Rumanians are replacing Arab workers in Israel. Require Muslim children to attend secular schools that teach Western values. The Netherlands is attempting to do this.
•Stop further Muslim inmigration. Send back non-citizens and their children, and revoke citizenship for law-breakers. Provide financial rewards for people willing to return.
The survival in Western Europe of the peoples and civilization that have created the modern world, with its levels of health, freedom and essential decency, is at risk. How we as inhabitants of Dar al Harb (the world of war) describe the doctrines of Islam is not relevant. How the preachers of Dar Al Islam interpret them is the crucial point. Under the Koran, it is the duty of every believer constantly to strive to expand the borders of Dar al Islam, and every peace treaty with unbelievers can only be a Hutna, a tactical truce. The fundamentalist view is that any part of the world that has ever been part of Islam must be so again. This would include Spain, Portugal, southern Italy, Sicily, all the Balkan countries, most of southern Russia and Ukraine, Armenia and Georgia, northern India and western China.
And tomorrow the world?
Arnold E. Reingold, a former Naval officer and city finance director, has taught college classes in statistics. Currently, Mr. Reingold is a Tax Attorney and Certified Public Accountant.